At the state level, however, the trend in decline of vital rates shows a mixed pattern. Whereas some states have shown remarkable improvements in the pursuit of lowering the birth rate, death rate and infant mortality rate mainly due to the seriousness with which the programmes mentioned above were implemented over the years, some other states could achieve only limited progress. The Hindi speaking heartland of the country, comprising of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, where about 44% of the population of the country live, significant decline in the vital rates is still far away with the sole exception of Himachal Pradesh. Table 2 would illustrate this further:

            As the Hindi Belt also includes one of the most densely populated area of the country, the Gangetic Plains, the slow decline in vital rates is adversely affecting the overall efforts in improving the living condition of the population in this area. It is important to consider the disaggregated vital rates at the sub-state level in districts or regions. One of the reasons for not publishing vital rates at district level is the insufficient sample size on which the rates are estimated based on Sample Registration System (SRS) survey. Lower the sample size, higher the error, which is likely to creep in while estimating the vital rates. Though census releases indirect estimation of vital rates at district level on the basis of the decennial census data, the decade long gap in the availability of data at district level restricts its effective use in formulating intervention strategy and evaluation at regular short intervals, which otherwise is available every year through SRS.

            In this article an attempt has been made to analyse the data at the natural division level, which comprises of a number of administrative districts. The estimation of vital rates at natural division level has less sampling errors than at district level. Furthermore many scholars are now holding the view that due mainly to greater homogeneity and uniformity in the cultural ethos and socio-economic and demographic conditions of the people living in the natural divisions than in the form of administrative districts, it is possible to delineate the areas of disparity by natural divisions. The picture emerging seems to represent a more realistic pattern of the differences or similarities existing for a particular characteristic. The natural division used here for the analysis conforms to the natural divisions used by the NSSO.